A week before Election Day, the results of a new MoneyShow.com®/The Independent Agenda® Investor Class Poll will not be welcomed by President Obama.
Nearly two-thirds (64.2%) of the 1,005 investors who responded to the survey plan to vote for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, versus only 27% who expect to cast their votes for the president. 8.6% of those surveyed said they were still undecided.
That’s actually a slight improvement for President Obama since our first poll six months ago, when Romney topped the president by 76%-24%, beating the incumbent by more than three to one.
And by 57% to 43%, the respondents to our current poll said they thought Gov. Romney would be elected. They also overwhelmingly expect Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives and, by 56% to 44%, look for Democrats to keep the US Senate.
Meanwhile, the investors polled were optimistic about the chances Congress and the next president will avoid going over the “fiscal cliff”– when hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts expire and mandatory spending reductions begin in January 2013.
A large majority—87% of those surveyed—expects a deal in the lame-duck session of Congress immediately after the election (20%); when the new Congress takes office in January 2013 (27%), or some time in 2013 (40%). Only 13% do not believe a deal will be struck.
President Obama’s re-election team can take some solace from the composition of this group.
45% are registered Republicans and only 18.5% are registered Democrats. The country is 30% Democratic and 27% Republican, so the percentage of Republicans in this group is significantly higher.
Also, 48% think of themselves as fiscal conservatives—about six percentage points higher than the 42% of all likely voters who describe themselves that way, according to a poll by the conservative Rasmussen Reports.
But that’s about all the positive spin the president’s supporters can take away from this.
In 2008, the investor class was evenly split between Sen. Obama and Sen. John McCain, according to a poll in Investor’s Business Daily. The same poll found investors broke for President George W. Bush over Sen. John Kerry by 53% to 42% in 2004.
This year, an October 28th IBD/TIPP daily tracking poll had Romney beating the president among the self-described investor class by 48% to 43%, with 8% undecided. (President Obama is leading comfortably among noninvestors, according to the same poll.)
As this long campaign moves towards its conclusion, investors have only hardened their strong opposition to this president—and now, in Mitt Romney, they think they have a winner.